A big fight boxing fans are eyeing for 2025 is Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence “Bud” Crawford. Both fighters started their careers in the under-140 lbs weight class—Crawford debuted at 137 lbs, and Canelo at 139 lbs. This bout is expected to generate around $600 million. Let me explain why I think Alvarez will come out on top.

Canelo Alvarez had his first world title fight at 20, on March 5, 2011. He fought Matthew Hatton for the WBC super-welterweight title after 36 fights. Off his 25 world title fight, he won 17 with 16 defenses. He has taken titles in four weight classes. His rise was swift, for at 20 he faced and won Matthew Hatton to claim his first WBC super-welterweight title. He later unified the division by beating Austin Trout to claim the WBC, WBA, and Ring titles. 

By 23, He was 42-0 before losing to Floyd Mayweather, a Hall of Famer and boxing icon. Despite the loss, he continued to face tougher competition. He defeated Miguel Cotto to win the WBC and Ring middleweight titles, then Liam Smith for the WBO light-middleweight title.

CANELO ALVAREZ`S SUCCESS ACROSS WEIGHT CLASSES

Canelo Alvarez jumped to 164 lbs weight class to beat Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. and faced Gennady Golovkin twice, drawing the first fight and winning the rematch to take the WBA and WBC middleweight titles.

In December 2018, He moved up to a higher weight class to beat Rocky Fielding for the WBA super-middleweight title. He then dropped back to 159 lbs to defeat Daniel Jacobs for the IBF middleweight title. Within six months, Canelo Alvarez jumped to light heavyweight, beating Sergey Kovalev for the WBO title. 

He returned to 168 lbs and defeated Callum Smith, Billy Joe Saunders, and Caleb Plant to unify the super-middleweight division. He became the first undisputed champion at 168 lbs, holding the WBO, WBA, WBC, and IBF titles. Later, he moved back to 175 lbs to face Dmitry Bivol but suffered his second career loss. 

Since then, Canelo has defended his super-middleweight titles four times. He defeated Gennady Golovkin in a trilogy fight, dropped John Ryder in the fifth round, and beat Jermell Charlo, bringing him to his knee in the seventh. Most recently, he defeated Jaime Munguia, dropping him in the fourth round.

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CONCLUSION

Canelo has unified three divisions, holding titles at 154, 160, 168, and 175 lbs. He is the reigning lineal champion at 168 lbs and the first boxer to become undisputed at super-middleweight. He has faced three Hall of Fame fighters and with Gennady Golovkin likely to join them soon we can say that is four. If Crawford makes the weight, you can’t say he’s too small for Canelo. Some describe Crawford as having “the heart of a Mexican, the athleticism of a Black fighter, and the IQ of a Cuban.” His fight against Madrimov showed he had the skills to compete. But weight classes exist for a reason. Canelo’s punching power raises serious questions about whether Crawford can handle it. 

The technical gap between Canelo and Bud right now is small, likely just 1–2%. But at this level, a bigger, stronger, and more experienced boxer can easily make up for that with physical advantages. They’re the same height, but Canelo has carried more muscle on his 5’7″ frame throughout his career. He’s simply more powerful than Bud. If this fight had happened five years ago, Bud would’ve been the clear pick. Today, Canelo is younger, stronger, and in his prime.

Bud could hurt Canelo because he’s slightly more technical. But that small edge isn’t overwhelming at this level. Canelo has enough skill to land clean shots on Bud’s chin. One solid punch from Canelo could drop him, especially in the later rounds. When both are exhausted, Bud will feel the power of a naturally stronger Canelo, and that could decide the fight.