UFC Fight Night: Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes Prediction

The light heavyweight division is set for fireworks as Carlos Ulberg and Dominick Reyes meet in the octagon at UFC Fight Night on September 27, 2025, at the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. Both fighters bring power, striking pedigree, and plenty of intrigue to the matchup — but they enter the bout at very different points in their careers.

Tale of the Tape

Fighter	Carlos Ulberg	Dominick Reyes
Nickname	Black Jag	The Devastator
Record	12-1	15-4
Age	34	35
Height	6’4” (193 cm)	6’4” (193 cm)
Reach	77” (196 cm)	77” (196 cm)
Stance	Orthodox	Southpaw
Style	Striker	Striker/Boxer

Carlos Ulberg – The Rising Contender

Carlos Ulberg has been building serious momentum in the 205-lb division. Known for his crisp striking, composure, and ability to control range, the New Zealander has shown that he’s not just a dangerous knockout artist but also a smart technician. Coming off impressive wins, Ulberg has positioned himself as one of the brightest prospects at light heavyweight. His precision striking, use of feints, and patient approach make him difficult to read and even harder to hit cleanly.

The question for Ulberg is whether he can maintain that level of composure against a veteran with fight-changing power like Dominick Reyes.

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Dominick Reyes – The Veteran with Knockout Power

Dominick Reyes has fought some of the biggest names in the division, including Jon Jones, Jan Błachowicz, and Jiri Procházka. While he has proven knockout ability and carries veteran experience, Reyes has struggled in recent years with durability and consistency. Several knockout losses have raised concerns about how much he can absorb against high-level strikers.

That said, Reyes remains dangerous at all times. His left hand is a weapon that can end a fight instantly if he finds his range. If he can close the distance, pressure Ulberg, and force exchanges in the pocket, he has a real chance of pulling off the upset.

Keys to Victory

For Ulberg: Stay composed, use footwork to manage distance, pick Reyes apart with jabs and leg kicks, and avoid trading recklessly early.
For Reyes: Apply forward pressure, close the gap, and look to test Ulberg’s chin with combinations. Making the fight gritty and forcing Ulberg into a brawl gives him the best shot.

Odds and Public View

Oddsmakers currently have Ulberg as the betting favorite, reflecting his recent form and rising momentum. Reyes, however, is considered a dangerous underdog — one punch could change the entire fight.

Prediction

Carlos Ulberg enters this matchup with the sharper tools, momentum, and fresher chin. If he keeps Reyes at range and avoids unnecessary exchanges, he should find opportunities to land clean shots.

Prediction: Carlos Ulberg wins by TKO in Round 2 or 3.