UFC Qatar: Belal Muhammad vs Ian Machado Garry Prediction and Breakdown

The welterweight match-up between Belal Muhammad and Ian Machado Garry at UFC Qatar is one of the card’s highest-stakes fights. It pits a seasoned, pressure-driven contender who has been fighting at the top of the division for years against an ultra-confident Irish prospect whose rise has been rapid and largely dominant. Both fighters bring different blueprints for victory, making this a compelling stylistic battle with title implications.

Belal Muhammad

Belal Muhammad is the consummate grinder. Known for an iron chin, relentless forward pressure and the ability to mix wrestling with high-volume striking, Muhammad has proven durable and tactically disciplined throughout a long run against top competition. He tends to push tempo, force opponents to fight at his pace, and slowly erode resistance over rounds. Muhammad’s recent performances show a fighter who leans on conditioning, smart shot selection and consistent fight IQ to win tight, cage-control battles.

Ian Machado Garry

Ian Machado Garry has established himself as one of the brightest young welterweights in the sport. A rangy, composed striker, Garry uses his length, precision and timing to control distance and frustrate aggressive opponents. His growth since joining the UFC has been notable — polishing combinations, improving defensive discipline and showing composure against pressure fighters. Garry’s confidence and unbeaten run entering higher-level opposition make him a dangerous stylistic puzzle for someone like Muhammad who wants to close the space.

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Tale of the Tape

Category	Belal Muhammad	Ian Machado Garry
Record	24-4 (1 NC)	16-1
Height	5’11”	6’3”
Reach	72 in	74 in
Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox
Age	37	27

Fight Analysis

This is a classic match of pressure versus range. Muhammad’s route to victory is straightforward: close the distance, smother Garry’s kicks and jab, create clinch and wrestling sequences, and grind the rounds while forcing activity. He thrives when opponents are denied the time and space to set up counters.

Garry’s game plan is to use his length, lateral movement and timing to keep Muhammad off balance. If he can control the outside with jabs and front kicks, pick his moments to explode forward, and avoid extended wrestling, he can accumulate points and pick apart Muhammad from the outside.

The turning point will likely be when Muhammad forces close-quarters work. If Garry allows repeated clinch work or succumbs to a wrestling-heavy pace, Muhammad’s durability and cardio favour him on decisions. Conversely, if Garry keeps the fight in open space and lands consistent scoring strikes, he will have a strong claim on the judges’ cards. This one should be tight and tactical, with small margins making the difference.

When, Where and How To Watch

Belal Muhammad vs Ian Machado Garry takes place at UFC Qatar and will air via the UFC’s global broadcast partners. As a key welterweight clash on the card, expect it on the main card with regional start times dependent on your area.

Prediction

This is razor-close, but Muhammad’s experience in awkward, grindy fights and his ability to impose a frame make him the safer long-term pick. Garry will test him early, but sustained pressure and wrestling exchanges could tip the fight toward Muhammad by the end.

Prediction: Belal Muhammad wins via decision