Can Tom Aspinall really beat Jon Jones?

Mixed Martial Arts is unlike any other sport. What do I mean? Well, when you have Michael Jordan, Dennis Rodman, and Scottie Pippen on your team, it increases your chances of winning significantly. Similarly, with some of the best footballers on their side, Real Madrid are always favorites to win. However, in MMA, while you can have a favorite going into a fight, it’s never assured that they would win because, at the end of the day, it’s a fist fight, and all it takes is one punch.

But even in such a scenario, one has to wonder whether UFC Interim Heavyweight Champion Tom Aspinall has what it takes to beat the UFC Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones. For months now, a section of the MMA community has been calling out Jones for ducking Aspinall. But, these callouts have no effect as UFC President Dana White has already mentioned Jones’ next fight in the promotion will be against Aspinall.

While it remains to be seen when and where Jon Jones and Tom Aspinall fight, the real question is, can Aspinall beat Jones? In this article, we will look at two reasons why he could and two reasons why he can’t.

Two Reasons why Tom Aspinall can beat Jon Jones:

Weight and Size advantage – In his last UFC fight, Jon Jones looked like a world-beater. However, it’s important to note Jones’ dominant performance came against a 42-year-old Stipe Miocic, who hadn’t fought in the octagon since being knocked out by Francis Ngannou in 2021. Not only was Miocic returning after a three-year gap, but he had also been brutally knocked out by Ngannou, which makes one wonder whether Jones fought the same Miocic who once knocked out some of the best the Heavyweight division had to offer.

Tom Aspinall, on the other hand, won’t be like Stipe Miocic. At 31, the British fighter is in his fighting prime, and he can pose a significant challenge to any Heavyweight around the world. Along with this, Aspinall seems to have a size advantage, which could work in his favor when Jones attempts to take him down and finish the fight. But, even if the fight goes to the ground, Aspinall is no slouch. With a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Aspinall has what it takes to survive on the ground.

Power and a 100 percent finish rate – In the 18 professional fights Tom Aspinall has fought in his career, he has won 15 times and has finished all 15 opponents. It’s also worth noting that in the last five victories Aspinall had in the octagon, none of his fights went beyond the first round. This stat more or less speaks about the striking proficiency and the power Aspinall can generate, which gives him an advantage against Jon Jones.

While Jones has looked invincible in most of his victories, it wouldn’t be fair to say he has never struggled. Against names like Alexander Gustafsson and Dominik Reyes, the UFC Heavyweight Champion was seen having a very hard time. If Aspinall can trouble Jones in the same manner, then it would be dangerous for the latter because a well-connected punch from the Interim Heavyweight Champion could end the night for Jones.

Two Reasons why Jon Jones can beat Tom Aspinall:

Experience and Quality of Opponents – Three years before Tom Aspinall made his professional debut, Jon Jones already became the youngest UFC champion aged 23 in 2011. This speaks volumes about the level Jones has fought at since being a very young fighter. While Aspinall has fought some good fighters in his rise to the top, it can’t be compared to the quality of opposition Jones has fought over the last 13 years.

Yes, most of the American champion’s victories came in the Light Heavyweight division, but it can’t be denied that he fought some of the best names on the planet against whom he wasn’t given a chance early in his career. On the other hand, if one looks at the names Aspinall has beaten in his career, the biggest name would be Andrei Arlovski, as he was the only guy who was a champion. Other than him, Curtis Blaydes and Alexander Volkov are two impressive names over whom Aspinall registered wins. But when it comes to Jones, the resume speaks for itself.

Overall Skill and Fight IQ – What makes Jon Jones one of the best fighters on the planet is his ability to dominate in the stand-up, clinch, and on the ground. Wherever the fight goes, Jones has always looked comfortable. Against strikes like Lyoto Machida, Jones looked dominant in the stand-up, whereas he looked equally dominant against an Olympic-level wrestler, Daniel Cormier, when they had grappling exchanges.

This ability Jones has speaks highly of his Fight IQ. Along with this, Jones’ habit of studying tape always helps him adjust according to the situations a fight has to present. While the 37-year-old might not have a lot of tapes of Tom Aspinall since his fights don’t last long, Jones will rely on his experience to adjust according to what the Aspinall fight demands of him. Overall, it would be safe to assume the Heavyweight Champion is the more skilled fighter, which also gives him a massive advantage.

What’s the conclusion?

Now, coming back to the question – Can Tom Aspinall beat Jon Jones? Maybe he can. But going into the fight, it will be the American champion who will have a massive advantage when it comes to skill and experience. While it’s hard to beat an advantage like this, at the end of the day, all it takes is one good strike for a fighter to end a dominant streak. If you don’t believe me, refer to Kamaru Usman vs Leon Edwards at UFC 278.

Varun Anand Bhat | Sidekick Boxing