Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales: Predictions, Analysis, and Breakdown

The UFC Fight Night has an interesting bout in the Welterweight division. This bout is between Gilbert Burns and Michael Morales, which is set as a Main Card fight, the 12th of 12 fights scheduled to be held on that night. The weight class for this fight is 170 lbs (77.1 kg).

Considering the last five matches, Gilbert Burns has suffered from back-to-back losses, while Michael Morales is on a five-match straight bout win. Here’s a quick breakdown—and who could be the smarter bet?

Fighters’ Profiles and Strength

Gilbert Burns – LLLWW

Gilbert Burns, also known as “Durinho,” is a Welterweight fighter from Niterói, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. He has a professional MMA record of 22 wins and 8 losses. Right now, he is on a three-fight losing streak. Gilbert has fought in the UFC from 2014 to 2024. During this time, he won 15 fights and lost 8.

He is ranked as the 33rd greatest MMA Welterweight of all time. Also, he is the 13th best active MMA welterweight and the 56th best pound-for-pound fighter. In 2020, he was named the 7th best MMA Fighter of the Year.

Looking at his fighting style, Gilbert has 6 wins and 3 losses by TKO. He also has 9 wins by submission. Plus, he has 7 wins and 5 losses by decision.

Some important fights in his career include a loss to Jack Della Maddalena by TKO on March 9, 2024. Before that, he had a unanimous decision win over Jorge Masvidal on April 8, 2023. He also won by submission against Neil Magny on January 21, 2023. However, he lost by unanimous decision to Khamzat Chimaev on April 9, 2022. Another loss was by submission to Lucas Barbosa on November 6, 2021. On the positive side, he won decisions over Stephen Thompson on July 10, 2021, and Rafael Lovato Jr. on April 30, 2021.

Before turning professional, Gilbert had an amateur submission win against Jamie Sanchez on July 30, 2011.

Michael Morales – WWWWW

Michael Morales is a professional Welterweight fighter from Pasaje, El Oro, Ecuador. He has a perfect record of 17 wins and no losses. Right now, he is on a 17-fight winning streak. Michael is ranked as the 7th best active MMA welterweight. He is also the 54th best pound-for-pound MMA fighter.

Looking at his professional stats, Michael has 12 wins by TKO, 1 win by submission, and 4 wins by decision. In 2014, he earned a victory on Dana White’s Contender Series. Since 2022, he has won five fights in the UFC.

Some of Michael’s notable wins include a TKO over Neil Magny on August 24, 2024. He also won by unanimous decision against Jake Matthews on November 18, 2023, and Max Griffin on July 1, 2023. Additionally, he scored TKO wins against Adam Fugitt on July 30, 2022, Trevin Giles on January 22, 2022, and Miguel Arizmendi on April 30, 2021. He also won a unanimous decision over Nikolay Veretennikov on September 23, 2021.

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However, not all his scheduled fights went ahead. His bout against Rinat Fakhretdinov on December 17, 2022, was cancelled because Michael got injured. Another fight with Ramiz Brahimaj on July 30, 2022, was called off after Brahimaj withdrew.

What time is the fight?

The fight kicks off live on Saturday, 05.17.2025 at 04:00 PM ET

Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

How Can I Watch It?

If you’re interested, you can watch it on ESPN+ Pay-per-view.

Statistical Matchup

CATEGORY	GILBERT BURNS	MICHAEL MORALES
AGE	38	25
HEIGHT	5’10”	6’0″
REACH	71.0″	79.0″
PRO RECORD	22-8-0	17-0-0
FIGHTING OUT OF	Boca Raton, Florida, United States	Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico

Final Prediction

Michael Morales has better takedown defense than Gilbert Burns. Plus, he’s on a 17-fight winning streak. Because of that, he looks like he has the edge in this fight. On the other hand, Burns is 38 years old and on a three-fight losing streak. It’s a tough, five-round fight.

Morales hasn’t fully proven himself yet, but he has power and better distance control. I don’t see Burns pulling off a sneaky submission either. This fight could go either way, but Gilbert could get knocked out—and I wouldn’t want to see that happen.

Burns almost beat Khamzat Chimaev, which makes me think he still has a chance. But that was three years ago. A lot has changed for Gilbert since then. He suffered a brutal knockout by Jack Della Maddalena, and lost to Belal Muhammad and Sean Brady. This isn’t the same Gilbert who fought Khamzat.

Just over a year ago, Burns was winning two rounds against JDM and seemed to be taking the third. But then JDM scrambled and finished Burns with ground and pound in the final minutes. JDM is now the champ. He lost only by decision to Belal, the previous champ, and Brady, the number one contender. Khamzat is also fighting for the title.

I really want Burns to win and retire on a high note. Morales has a lot of range and speed, which worries me. However, Morales doesn’t fight like Belal or Brady. It will be a tough fight, but Burns can pull it off.

One thing to keep in mind: many undefeated fighters lost their first loss this year.

MICHAEL MORALES TO WIN BY KNOCKOUT

UNDER 3.5 ROUNDS

MICHAEL MORALES TO WIN