Julian Erosa vs Melquizael Costa: Predictions, Analysis, and Breakdown

The UFC Fight Night has an interesting bout in the Featherweight division. This bout is between Julian Erosa and Melquizael Costa, which is set as a Main Card fight, the 8th of 12 fights scheduled to be held on that night. The weight class for this fight is 145 lbs (65.8 kg).

Considering the last five matches, Julian Erosa has recorded three wins and two losses in the last five fights, while Melquizael Costa has won four of his last five bout. Here’s a quick breakdown—and who could be the smarter bet?

Fighters’ Profiles and Strength

Julian Erosa – WWWLL

Julian Erosa, also called “Juicy J,” is a professional MMA fighter from the United States. He has a record of 31 wins and 11 losses. Right now, he is on a three-fight winning streak. He is ranked as the 33rd best featherweight fighter in the world.

Out of his wins, 12 came by TKO, 14 by submission, and 5 by decision. On the other hand, he has lost 7 times by TKO and 4 times by decision.

Julian began fighting in the UFC in 2015. Since then, he has 9 wins and 7 losses in the promotion. He also won a fight in Dana White’s Contender Series in 2018.

Some of his notable fights include a TKO win over Darren Elkins on April 12, 2025. He also won by submission against Christian Rodriguez on July 13, 2024, and Ricardo Ramos on March 23, 2024. However, he lost to Fernando Padilla on April 29, 2023, and Alex Caceres on December 17, 2022, both by TKO.

Before turning pro, Julian beat Ben Hickson by submission on April 3, 2010. He also won a fight by unanimous decision against Hakeem Dawodu on September 10, 2022. One scheduled fight against Tony Kelley on March 21, 2020, was cancelled due to COVID-19.

Melquizael Costa – WWWLW

Melquizael Costa has a professional MMA record of 23 wins and 7 losses. He fights out of Bauru, São Paulo, Brazil, and is ranked 80th in the featherweight division. He turned pro in 2014 with a win over Benjamin Pantoja. In 2016, he defeated Jonas dos Santos at the Revelation Fighting Championship and Severino Ramalho at the Strike Fighting Championship.

In 2022, Costa joined the Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) and fought twice, winning once. His win came against Ángel Rodríguez, earning him the Predator FC Featherweight Championship. He signed with the UFC in 2023 and has fought four times, recording two wins and two losses.

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His UFC debut was at UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill, where he lost to Thiago Moisés via rear-naked choke submission. However, in UFC Fight Night, he has two wins and one loss. He secured victories over Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (rear-naked choke submission) and Austin Lingo (unanimous decision).

What time is the fight?

The fight kicks off live on Saturday, 05.17.2025 at 04:00 PM ET

Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

How Can I Watch It?

If you’re interested, you can watch it on ESPN+ Pay-per-view.

Statistical Matchup

CATEGORY	JULIAN EROSA	MELQUIZAEL COSTA
AGE	35	28
HEIGHT	6’1″	5’10”
REACH	74.5″	71.0″
PRO RECORD	31-11-0	23-7-0
FIGHTING OUT OF	Yakima, Washington, United States	Bauru, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Final Prediction

Julian Erosa has been in the UFC three times. In his first two stints, he had many losses. Now, in his third run, he has 8 wins and 3 losses, but overall, six losses in total. He has been knocked out seven times. Still, he keeps fighting like it doesn’t bother him. He is aggressive and confident in the cage.

Melquizael Costa is a true fighter. His striking keeps improving. I think he will get a knockout in this fight. That’s because Julian Erosa has been knocked out before by fighters who use a southpaw stance. Costa also has a strong kicking game, which could give him the edge.

UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS

MELQUIZAEL COSTA TO WIN

MELQUIZAEL COSTA TO WIN BY KNOCKOUT