UFC 317 Co-Main Event Preview: Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France – Prediction, Odds & Breakdown

The UFC returns to Las Vegas for International Fight Week with a flyweight title showdown that has all the ingredients for a technical chess match — and potential fireworks. In the co-main event of UFC 317, reigning flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja defends his belt against hard-hitting contender Kai Kara-France. Pantoja, known for his relentless grappling and elite cardio, takes on a striker who lives up to his nickname: “Don’t Blink.”

This matchup pits two top-five fighters with vastly different styles, both chasing very different legacies. For Pantoja, it’s about extending his reign and cementing his status as the most dominant grappler in the division. For Kara-France, it’s redemption and a second crack at UFC gold after falling short against Brandon Moreno in 2022.

Let’s break down the matchup, the betting odds, and who we think walks away with the belt on June 28.

Fighter Form Guide

Alexandre Pantoja (29-5, Champion)

Pantoja has quietly become one of the most dangerous flyweights on the roster, racking up wins over the likes of Brandon Royval, Manel Kape, and Matt Schnell. He’s currently riding a seven-fight win streak and is coming off a gritty decision victory over Steve Erceg in his second title defense.

What makes Pantoja so dangerous is his ability to chain together strikes into takedowns, then suffocate opponents with positional control. He averages 2.7 takedowns per 15 minutes and holds a 47% success rate — impressive in a division known for speed and scrambles.

Pantoja doesn’t just rely on wrestling; he’s a submission artist with 11 wins by tapout, and his cardio has proven reliable over five rounds. He breaks opponents mentally and physically. If he gets a body lock or backpack position, it’s a long night.

Kai Kara-France (25-11, #5 Ranked Contender)

Kai Kara-France brings power and striking precision to a division not typically known for knockouts. A member of City Kickboxing, he trains alongside Israel Adesanya and Alexander Volkanovski — and it shows. He’s a sharp, disciplined striker who lands 4.56 significant strikes per minute and has finished 12 of his 25 wins by knockout.

Kara-France was last seen returning to form with a KO victory over Steve Erceg, reminding fans why he’s still a dangerous threat despite a pair of recent setbacks. His takedown defense sits around 88%, and he’s improved significantly at defending chain wrestling and scrambling back to his feet.

Tale of the Tape: Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France

Category	Alexandre Pantoja	Kai Kara-France
Nickname	The Cannibal	Don’t Blink
Record	29-5	25-11
Age	35	31
Height	5’5” (165 cm)	5’4” (163 cm)
Reach	67” (170 cm)	66.5” (169 cm)

SHOP: The Kickboxer Collection

But there’s still a question mark around his ability to deal with sustained pressure and elite grapplers. He was outgrappled and submitted early in his UFC career, and Pantoja already holds a submission win over him back in 2018 — albeit when both fighters were still developing.

Odds

Alexandre Pantoja: -240 (Favoured)
Kai Kara-France: +200 (Underdog)

The oddsmakers see this as Pantoja’s fight to lose, and the betting line reflects his dominance over recent opponents. Kara-France brings value as a live dog, but it would likely require a KO — something few have been able to even threaten against Pantoja.

Prediction

While Kara-France is a dangerous striker with the ability to turn out the lights, the champion has already shown he can handle that style — and has beaten Kara-France before. Unless Kara-France has made massive improvements to his defensive grappling, Pantoja’s ability to close distance, chain takedowns, and dominate position will likely win him rounds and wear down the challenger.

Pantoja’s durability, experience, and ground pressure give him the edge. Expect a more competitive fight than their first meeting, but ultimately one that ends with the belt staying in Brazil.

Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja via Unanimous Decision