UFC 317 Feature Fight Preview: Renato Moicano vs Beneil Dariush – Prediction, Odds & Breakdown

UFC 317’s undercard is packed with competitive matchups, but one lightweight bout quietly carries serious weight in the division’s title picture. Former top contender Beneil Dariush takes on surging Brazilian finisher Renato Moicano in what promises to be a high-stakes, high-paced clash of elite grapplers with very different trajectories.

Dariush is looking to prove he still belongs in the lightweight elite after a devastating first-round knockout loss to Arman Tsarukyan. Meanwhile, Moicano has resurrected his career at 155 pounds with a string of dominant finishes, including a first-round submission of Drew Dober that reintroduced him as a force in the division.

Two well-rounded fighters with strong grappling bases and underrated striking — but only one can break into true contention. Let’s break it all down.

Fighter Form Guide

Renato Moicano (18-5-1, #13 Lightweight)

Renato Moicano’s career resurgence at lightweight has been nothing short of impressive. Since moving up from featherweight, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt has gone 5-2 with five finishes — all by submission. His most recent victory, a dismantling of Drew Dober via first-round RNC, put the rest of the top 15 on notice.

Moicano is one of the most dangerous back-takers in the division, with excellent positional awareness and submission instincts. What’s elevated him lately is his aggressive striking. He now uses powerful jab-cross combinations to back opponents up and create chaos — ideal conditions for a level change or a clinch.

Though not known for KO power, Moicano’s striking has improved to the point where opponents must respect it. He lands 5.09 significant strikes per minute and mixes in body kicks and knees with great timing.

His biggest vulnerability has historically been his chin, having been knocked out by the likes of Rafael Fiziev and Chan Sung Jung. But when he gets the fight to the mat — it’s usually over quickly.

Beneil Dariush (22-6-1, #6 Lightweight)

Once considered the dark horse of the lightweight division, Dariush is coming off back-to-back first-round losses — against Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan — both via TKO. At 35 years old, many are asking if the former top contender’s best days are behind him.

But writing off Dariush would be a mistake. Before those defeats, he’d won eight straight fights against top-level opposition including Tony Ferguson, Diego Ferreira, and Mateusz Gamrot. He’s a strong grappler with elite-level scrambling, underrated power, and an unorthodox striking style that often overwhelms slower opponents.

Dariush’s fight IQ has long been one of his strengths. He blends pressure, awkward timing, and opportunistic submissions. However, his recent losses revealed a worrying trend: his reaction time and durability might be slipping.

If Dariush can return to his chaotic but controlled style — pushing Moicano backward with big looping left hands and threatening scrambles — he could reassert himself in the contender conversation.

Tale of the Tape: Renato Moicano vs Beneil Dariush

Category	Renato Moicano	Beneil Dariush
Nickname	Moicano	Benny
Record	18-5-1	22-6-1
Age	35	35
Height	5’11” (180 cm)	5’10” (178 cm)
Reach	72” (183 cm)	72” (183 cm)

Odds

Renato Moicano: -130 (Slight Favourite)

Beneil Dariush: +110 (Underdog)

The odds are close, and for good reason. Dariush is the more proven name with wins over top-five opponents. But Moicano’s recent momentum and first-round finishing ability have him slightly favoured.

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Prediction

This is a razor-thin matchup on paper, but momentum often plays a huge role in fights like these. Moicano is fighting with confidence, his striking is peaking, and his submissions are lethal once the fight hits the ground.

Dariush can certainly win this — especially if he turns up the pressure early — but the signs of decline in his last two performances can’t be ignored. Against a dangerous finisher like Moicano, one wrong move in a scramble could be the end.

Prediction: Renato Moicano via Submission (Round 2)