UFC Baku Main Event Preview: Jamahal Hill vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. — Prediction, Odds & Analysis

The UFC heads to Baku, Azerbaijan for the very first time, and topping the card is a thrilling light heavyweight showdown between former champion Jamahal Hill and the ever-dangerous Khalil Rountree Jr. This fight is more than just two heavy hitters going at it—it’s a crucial moment in both men’s careers, with the winner likely re-entering title contention.

Both fighters are coming off losses to the same man, Alex Pereira, and both are looking to remind the division that they still belong at the top.

Fight Details

Event: UFC Fight Night: Baku
Date: Saturday, June 21, 2025
Location: Baku Crystal Hall, Azerbaijan
Main Card Start: 11:30 AM ET
Broadcast: ESPN / ABC (U.S.)

This marks the UFC’s debut event in Azerbaijan, and it’s fitting that the main event brings two of the most violent finishers in the light heavyweight division.

Fighter Breakdown

Jamahal “Sweet Dreams” Hill (12–3)

Hill’s path back to the Octagon hasn’t been smooth. After winning the light heavyweight belt in 2023, he suffered a torn Achilles that sidelined him for over a year. His return earlier this year didn’t go as planned—he was knocked out in the first round by current champ Alex Pereira.

Despite that setback, Hill still has elite tools. He’s a sharp boxer with excellent reach, strong composure, and the ability to control distance with his jab and straight punches. However, back-to-back knockout losses have raised concerns about his durability, and those questions will need answering Saturday.

Khalil “The War Horse” Rountree Jr. (13–6)

Rountree may be one of the most emotionally charged fighters in the UFC. His intense energy and fight-week focus are unmatched. Prior to his own loss to Pereira, Rountree had reeled off five consecutive wins—most of them by knockout—showing off brutal Muay Thai and improved mental clarity.

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His style is aggressive, and he hits incredibly hard. But that same forward pressure can make him vulnerable to counters. Against someone like Hill, who thrives on timing and accuracy, that’s a dangerous game to play.

Category	Jamahal Hill	Khalil Rountree Jr.
Nickname	Sweet Dreams	The War Horse
Age	33	34
Height	6’4″ (193 cm)	6’1″ (185 cm)
Reach	79″ (201 cm)	76″ (193 cm)
Record	12-3 (1 NC)	13-6 (1 NC)

Betting Odds

The betting lines reflect how closely matched this fight is:

Khalil Rountree Jr.: -155 (favorite)
Jamahal Hill: +130 (underdog)
Over/Under Rounds: 2.5 (under is favored)

Oddsmakers see this as a coin-flip with a high likelihood of a finish. Most bettors are expecting a short fight—and for good reason.

Prediction

This is a true clash of styles. Rountree will come out swinging, trying to overwhelm Hill with pressure and power. Hill, meanwhile, will look to weather the early storm, keep things technical, and use his boxing to control the pace.

If Hill can survive the first round and stay composed, his accuracy and footwork could be the difference. But with both fighters carrying serious power, a finish feels almost inevitable.

Prediction: Jamahal Hill wins via TKO in Round 2