UFC Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim: Prediction and Breakdown

Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson returns to action on July 12, 2025, at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee, facing unbeaten Brazilian Gabriel Bonfim. It’s a compelling clash of styles: Thompson’s veteran striking and range control versus Bonfim’s youthful power and submission skill. With contrasting career trajectories and skill sets, this matchup could turn on simple physics—who can impose their game plan first.

Tale of the Tape

Fighter	Stephen Thompson	Gabriel Bonfim
Record	17–8–1	17–1
Age	42	27
Height	6’0″	6’1″
Reach	75″	72½”
Stance	Orthodox (karate base)	Orthodox

Analysis

Stephen Thompson remains among MMA’s most elusive and technical strikers, even at 42. His karate-influenced stance, lateral movement, and volume of kicks allow him to dictate distance and tempo. Against forward-charging opponents, he has repeatedly shown his ability to pick spots, counter effectively, and avoid damage.

SHOP: The Kickboxer Collection

Gabriel Bonfim comes in as a stark contrast—undefeated, aggressive, and submission-focused. He’s finished nearly every fight, often rapidly via guillotine or choke. But his offensive style is linear; he tends to overcommit when closing distance, which creates openings for counterstrikers. And while his grappling is dangerous, it’s yet to be tested against someone as defensively sharp as Thompson.

The fight hinges on whether Bonfim can close the gap without walking into counters. Thompson’s takedown defense and footwork can frustrate and neutralize less disciplined pressure. If Thompson stays light on his feet and lands crisp counters, he’s likely to frustrate Bonfim out of his rhythm and gradually take control.

Prediction

Expect early grappling attempts from Bonfim, but if he fails to score a takedown or mix up levels quickly, he’ll play into Thompson’s strengths. The veteran’s timing and accuracy should enable him to catch Bonfim charging in with a clean shot.

Thompson’s experience and movement advantage are key. Expect him to manage distance, land decisive counters, and potentially force a stoppage—unless Bonfim dramatically improves his entry discipline or submission timing.

Pick: Stephen Thompson via TKO in Round 2