Vergil Ortiz Jr vs Erickson Lubin: Prediction and Breakdown

As fight night approaches on November 8, 2025, all eyes turn to Fort Worth, Texas, where Vergil Ortiz Jr will defend his WBC interim super welterweight title against Erickson Lubin at the Dickies Arena. The matchup pits two dynamic fighters at different crossroads of their careers — Ortiz, the undefeated knockout artist chasing superstardom, and Lubin, the seasoned contender hungry for redemption and respect.

Tale of the Tape

Fighter	Vergil Ortiz Jr	Erickson Lubin
Record	23-0 (21 KOs)	27-2 (19 KOs)
Age	27	30
Height	5 ft 10 in (178 cm)	5 ft 11 in (180 cm)
Reach	70 in (178 cm)	74 in (188 cm)
Stance	Orthodox	Southpaw
Nationality	American	American
Title	WBC Interim Super Welterweight Champion	Challenger

Ortiz’s Relentless Pressure

Vergil Ortiz Jr has built his reputation on aggression, precision, and unrelenting pressure. With a record of 23-0 and 21 knockouts, he carries one of the highest knockout percentages in the division. Ortiz’s ability to cut off the ring and break opponents down with body shots makes him dangerous from the opening bell. His improved patience in recent fights, particularly against Israil Madrimov earlier this year, showed his maturity as a complete fighter rather than a reckless power puncher. Fighting in front of his home crowd in Texas adds another layer of motivation — and pressure — but Ortiz has never seemed to shrink under the lights.

SHOP: Kickboxing Gear

Lubin’s Tactical Challenge

Erickson Lubin, at 27-2 with 19 knockouts, brings experience, adaptability, and southpaw trickiness to the ring. Over the years, he has evolved into a smarter, more disciplined fighter after setbacks earlier in his career. His technical skills, timing, and counterpunching make him capable of exploiting Ortiz’s forward momentum if he can stay composed. Lubin’s best chance lies in keeping the fight at mid-range, using movement and combinations to frustrate Ortiz and take advantage of defensive lapses. However, sustaining that game plan over twelve rounds against a relentless puncher is a tall order.

Prediction

Expect an explosive start as Ortiz pushes the pace early, targeting the body to slow Lubin’s movement. Lubin will have his moments, especially in the middle rounds, where his timing and accuracy could expose openings. But Ortiz’s consistent pressure and punching power are likely to take their toll as the fight progresses.

By the championship rounds, Lubin’s defense may begin to crack under the constant assault. Ortiz’s power shots and volume should eventually overwhelm him. The prediction: Vergil Ortiz Jr wins by late stoppage — likely between rounds eight and ten — retaining his WBC interim title and moving one step closer to a full world championship opportunity.

If Ortiz delivers as expected, it will solidify his position among the elite at 154 pounds and mark another emphatic chapter in his rise toward boxing stardom.