UFC Fight Night Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales: Preview and Prediction

The UFC returns to the Apex on Saturday, May 17, with a welterweight main event that pits experience against momentum. Gilbert Burns, a battle-tested veteran with a resume full of top-tier opponents, takes on the undefeated Michael Morales, one of the division’s most promising young prospects. It’s a classic crossroads fight—one looking to prove he still belongs at the top, the other trying to take the next big step.

Gilbert Burns: One Last Run?

Gilbert “Durinho” Burns (22–8) has long been one of the most respected names in the division. The Brazilian is a former title challenger, a world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, and has shown real knockout power in his hands. But lately, he’s hit a rough patch. Burns enters this fight on a three-fight losing streak, dropping decisions to Belal Muhammad, Jack Della Maddalena, and Sean Brady.

The losses don’t tell the full story—Burns has fought elite competition—but at 38 years old, time isn’t exactly on his side. This could be a “make-or-break” moment in his career.

Michael Morales: The New Wave

Michael Morales (17–0) is riding a wave of momentum that’s impossible to ignore. The Ecuadorian standout is a perfect 6–0 in the UFC and has looked better each time out. His most recent win over Neil Magny was a breakout performance—showcasing clean striking, rock-solid defense, and the kind of poise you don’t often see in a 25-year-old.

Morales is athletic, composed, and technically sound. Perhaps most importantly for this matchup, his 92% takedown defense suggests he’ll be well prepared for Burns’ grappling-heavy game plan.

How They Match Up

This fight is a textbook case of striker vs. grappler. Burns will almost certainly try to get the fight to the mat, where he can use his elite jiu-jitsu to hunt for submissions or control the pace. Morales, on the other hand, will want to keep the fight standing, use his reach and movement, and pick Burns apart from distance.

The big X-factor? Morales’ takedown defense. If he can stay on his feet and avoid grappling exchanges, he should have the tools to win a striking battle over five rounds.

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Odds

Michael Morales: -850
Gilbert Burns: +575

The oddsmakers see Morales as a heavy favorite—and it’s not hard to understand why. He’s undefeated, has looked sharp against solid competition, and is catching Burns at a tough point in his career.

Prediction

This is a dangerous fight for both men. For Burns, it’s about proving he still has something left in the tank. For Morales, it’s his toughest test yet.

Still, all signs point to Morales continuing his unbeaten run. If he can keep the fight standing and avoid the takedown, he should be able to outstrike Burns over five rounds. Burns always has a submission or power punch in his back pocket, but the more likely outcome is Morales staying composed and earning a late stoppage or a clear decision win.

Prediction: Michael Morales via unanimous decision.