UFC 317 Main Event Preview: Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira – Prediction, Odds & Analysis

The UFC returns to Las Vegas for UFC 317 on Saturday, June 29th, headlined by a scintillating clash between the undefeated featherweight champion Ilia “El Matador” Topuria and the former lightweight king Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira. With the lightweight title once again vacant, this high-stakes bout will determine the new ruler of the 155-pound division.

Both fighters come into the bout with vastly different styles, trajectories, and motivations—setting up one of the most anticipated main events of the year.

Topuria Looks to Cement Legacy with Second Division Gold

Fresh off a dominant knockout win over Alexander Volkanovski to claim the featherweight title, Ilia Topuria has decided to chase greatness by moving up to lightweight. The Georgian-Spanish phenom is undefeated at 16–0 and has built a reputation for finishing opponents with vicious boxing and rock-solid grappling defense.

Topuria claims the cut to 145 was becoming unbearable, and early footage from his lightweight training camp shows him stronger, faster, and more fluid at 155. Though this marks his first official fight in the division, he’s trained with larger fighters throughout his career, and his confidence is sky-high.

Known for his technical footwork, elite hand speed, and cold composure, Topuria has predicted a first-round finish—by knockout or submission—against one of the most dangerous grapplers in UFC history.

If he delivers, he becomes one of the rare modern UFC champions to hold belts in two divisions, and the youngest lightweight titleholder since BJ Penn.

Oliveira Seeks Redemption and Gold Once More

Charles Oliveira is no stranger to adversity. The Brazilian holds the record for most finishes in UFC history (20), and despite losing the title to Islam Makhachev and withdrawing from a rematch due to injury, he remains a lethal presence in the lightweight landscape.

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Now 35, Oliveira knows this may be his final run at the belt. In recent interviews, he’s dismissed Topuria’s trash talk with calm veteran confidence, stating, “I’ve been through real battles—nothing he says can rattle me.”

His key to victory lies in one of the most feared submission arsenals in MMA. If he can close the distance, take Topuria’s back, or snatch a neck in a scramble, the fight could end in seconds. However, his striking defense has proven porous in past bouts, and he’s been dropped multiple times in recent fights—even in wins.

Against a precise, powerful striker like Topuria, any defensive lapse could prove fatal.

Tale of the Tape

Fighter	Ilia Topuria	Charles Oliveira
Record	16–0	35–10 (1 NC)
Age	27	35
Height	5’7″	5’10”
Reach	69″	74″
Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox
Notable Wins	Volkanovski, Emmett	Gaethje, Chandler, Ferguson
Finishes	6 KO, 8 Sub	9 KO, 21 Sub

Fight Analysis

This matchup pits youth versus experience, power versus precision, and undefeated momentum against elite veteran savvy.

Topuria’s advantages are clear: he’s younger, hits harder, and has yet to taste defeat. His defensive wrestling has stood up to high-level opponents, and he rarely loses composure under pressure. At 155, he should be even more explosive.

But Oliveira is dangerous everywhere. If the fight hits the mat, even briefly, he could end things quickly. His jiu-jitsu is unmatched in the UFC, and he’s shown time and again that he only needs a moment to turn the tide. What he lacks in striking defense, he often makes up for in wild unpredictability and sheer aggression.

The key question: Can Topuria avoid the ground? If he does, he likely finishes Oliveira with sharp combinations inside two rounds. If not, Oliveira could pull off another wild comeback.

Betting Odds (as of June 25th)

Ilia Topuria: 1/5 (-500)
Charles Oliveira: 7/2 (+350)

The oddsmakers are heavily favoring the undefeated Spaniard, with Topuria sitting as a dominant betting favorite. Oliveira backers could find significant value in the submission prop, which is always live with “Do Bronx.”

Prediction: Topuria via TKO (Round 2)

While Oliveira’s resume and finishing record demand respect, the physical wear and tear from past wars may finally catch up to him. Against a precise, relentless pressure fighter like Topuria, mistakes are costly—and Oliveira has shown too many in recent performances.

Expect a cautious start, but once Topuria finds his range, he’ll overwhelm Oliveira with clean combinations and superior timing. Unless the Brazilian can pull off another miracle submission, this looks like Topuria’s coronation in a second weight class.

Prediction: Ilia Topuria via TKO, Round 2