Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez UFC 318 Prediction, Preview and Analysis

Kevin Holland and Daniel Rodriguez are set to square off in a pivotal welterweight clash at UFC 318 on July 19, 2025, in New Orleans. For Holland, it’s another step toward staying active and climbing back into the rankings. For Rodriguez, it’s a chance to derail a surging contender and reclaim relevance in a crowded division.

Kevin Holland: Volume, Versatility, and Momentum

Few fighters have been more active than Kevin Holland over the past two years. Known for his unorthodox striking, long reach, and willingness to fight anyone on short notice, Holland enters UFC 318 with clear momentum. After an unsuccessful return to middleweight, he dropped back down to welterweight and looked sharp in wins over Gunnar Nelson and Vicente Luque—both victories showcasing his evolving grappling and ability to control range.

Holland’s size will again be a key asset. At 6’3” with an 81-inch reach, he has one of the longest frames in the division. He also boasts a unique striking style that relies on sniping punches, front kicks, and opportunistic clinch strikes. Although known for his stand-up, Holland has quietly improved his grappling, now blending his length with opportunistic submissions. His 2023 submission win over Michael Chiesa still stands as one of his cleaner performances.

Daniel Rodriguez: Pressure and Power

Daniel “D-Rod” Rodriguez returns to action off a strong knockout win over Santiago Ponzinibbio in May. The 38-year-old has made a name for himself with pressure striking, high volume, and a rugged chin. At 6’1” with a 74-inch reach, Rodriguez is significantly smaller than Holland in frame but makes up for it with grit and forward momentum.

Rodriguez averages over 7 significant strikes per minute—one of the higher outputs in the division. His ability to stay in the pocket and trade favors him against flat-footed fighters, but against rangy opponents like Holland, the path to success is much narrower. Rodriguez will need to break distance early and avoid getting picked apart from the outside.

One major concern is his defensive stats. Rodriguez absorbs over 5 significant strikes per minute and has shown lapses in head movement and range awareness. At 38, with the miles adding up, this could be a pivotal moment in his career trajectory.

SHOP: The Kickboxer Collection

Tale of the Tape

Stat	Kevin Holland	Daniel Rodriguez
Record	28–13 (1 NC)	19–5
Height	6’3”	6’1”
Reach	81”	74”
Strikes Landed/Min	4.24	7.39
Strikes Absorbed/Min	3.11	5.39
Grappling Threat	Moderate (0.81 TDs/15m)	Low (0.55 TDs/15m)

Prediction: Holland Has the Tools to Finish

The odds heavily favor Kevin Holland—and with good reason. He possesses both the size and technical advantages in nearly every category. His ability to control distance and pick apart shorter opponents could make this fight a one-sided affair if Rodriguez cannot close the range quickly.

Rodriguez is a durable, volume-heavy fighter, but he struggles against long, accurate strikers. Holland’s jab, straight rights, and kicks to the body will be key weapons early. If Rodriguez gets desperate, Holland may even look to grapple—something he’s done more frequently in recent fights.

Expect Holland to stay measured early, establish range, and test Rodriguez’s timing. By the second or third round, a finish becomes likely—either by strikes or a surprise submission if Rodriguez overcommits.

Official Prediction: Kevin Holland via TKO (Round 2 or 3)

Unless Rodriguez lands a big shot early or completely overwhelms Holland with pressure, this fight leans heavily in favor of the Dallas native. Holland’s reach, movement, and striking variety should be enough to control the pace. If he stays focused and avoids unnecessary brawling, a highlight-reel finish is well within reach.

What’s Next for the Winner?

A win for Holland likely earns him a fight against a ranked opponent in the top 10—possibly someone like Sean Brady or Vicente Luque in a rematch. For Rodriguez, a win would be a career-saving moment and could push him into short-notice replacement territory for a main card slot before the end of the year.

Regardless of the outcome, UFC 318 offers a compelling clash of styles: size vs. pressure, creativity vs. grit. But if recent form holds true, the edge belongs to Kevin Holland.