Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov UFC 318 Prediction, Preview and Analysis

Paulo Costa meets Roman Kopylov in the co-main event of UFC 318 on July 19, 2025, at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans. With Costa in search of a career resurgence and Kopylov riding strong momentum, this bout could decide who emerges as a middleweight to watch in 2025.

Paulo Costa: Awakening the Fighter Who Once Dominated

Once a top contender, Paulo Costa has struggled in recent years, holding a 1–4 record since his title shot loss to Israel Adesanya in 2020. Despite facing elite competition, he hasn’t scored a knockout since 2018, and critics argue he’s become mentally inconsistent and less willing to fight on short notice. Michael Bisping has publicly called Costa “his own worst enemy,” citing mental disconnects as a key issue. Costa’s brother and coach expressed confidence that this camp will be different, predicting Costa might finish the fight before the third round.

Roman Kopylov: Striking Surge with Confidence

Russian sambo-influenced striker Roman Kopylov has turned his recent UFC career around, winning six of his past seven fights. He earned a highlight head-kick knockout in the dying seconds over Chris Curtis, showing both precision and fight IQ. Known for his refined striking, Kopylov blends powerful kicks and combinations with sturdy defense—and has never been stopped in his professional career.

SHOP: The Kickboxer Collection

Tale of the Tape

Stat	Paulo Costa	Roman Kopylov
Recent Form	1–4 in past 5 UFC fights	6–1 since debut
Fight Frequency	Sporadic; ring rust risk	Active every year
KO/TKO Rate	Historically high, now low	12 of 14 wins by KO/TKO
Volume & Output	~6.2 significant strikes/min	~5.0 significant strikes/min
Durability & Defense	Absorbs ~6.6 strikes/min, inconsistent cardio	Rarely stopped, steady defense
Mental & Tactical Confidence	Questionable consistency	Focused, improving fighter

Prediction: Kopylov Is the Smart Money

While Costa has size and power, his inconsistent recent performances and question marks over his mental readiness make him a risky pick. Kopylov, by contrast, brings steady striking, active fight rhythm, and growing confidence—making him the betting favorite at around –230 to –250 versus Costa’s +190 to +200 odds.

Analysts lean toward Kopylov due to Costa’s inactivity and inconsistency. Some observers suggest that Costa must rely on mental focus and a return to his old aggressive style to compete, but even then, it’s a cautious outlook. Kopylov appears to have the more stable trajectory.