Christian Rodriguez vs Melquizael Costa: Predictions, Analysis, and Breakdown

The Preliminary Card (fight 5 of 13) at the UFC event in the U.S. features Christian Rodriguez vs. Melquizael Costa in the 145 lbs (65.8 kg) weight class. Rodriguez has 4 wins and 1 loss in his last five fights. Costa is on a two-fight winning streak. Here’s what you need to know—and who might be a good bet.

Fighters’ Profiles and Strength

Christian Rodriguez – WLWWW

Christian Rodriguez, also known as “CeeRod,” has a professional record of 12 wins and 2 losses. His victories include 3 knockouts, 4 submissions, and 5 decisions. He is currently ranked 49th among the best MMA featherweight fighters. His last fight was on January 11, 2025, in the UFC, where he won by unanimous decision against Austin Bashi.

Before that, he lost to Julian Erosa in the first round by Guillotine Choke submission. Rodriguez has fought in four promotions: Bellator MMA (1 win), Legacy Fighting Alliance (2 wins), Dana White Contender Series (1 win), and the UFC (5 wins, 2 losses). In 2022, he earned the UFC Fight Night Performance of the Night against Joshua Weems with a first-round Anaconda Choke submission. He has also defeated Charalampos Grigoriou, John Pham, Reyes Cortez, and Ryan McIntosh.

Melquizael Costa – WWLWL

Melquizael Costa has a professional MMA record of 21 wins and 7 losses. He fights out of Bauru, São Paulo, Brazil, and is ranked 80th in the featherweight division. Costa turned pro in 2014 with a win over Benjamin Pantoja. In 2016, he beat Jonas dos Santos at the Revelation Fighting Championship and Severino Ramalho at the Strike Fighting Championship.

SHOP: Ultimate T8 Boxing Gloves

In 2022, Costa joined the Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA), where he fought twice and won once. His win was against Ángel Rodríguez, earning him the Predator FC Featherweight Championship. Costa signed with the UFC in 2023. He has fought four times, with two wins and two losses. His UFC debut was at UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill, where he lost to Thiago Moisés by rear-naked choke submission. However, in UFC Fight Night, he has two wins and one loss. He defeated Shayilan Nuerdanbieke by rear-naked choke submission and Austin Lingo by unanimous decision.

What time is the fight?

The fight kicks off live on Saturday, 03.29.2025, at 04:00 PM ET

Location: Arena CDMX, Mexico City, Mexico

How Can I Watch It?

If you’re interested, you can watch it on ESPN+ Pay-per-view.

Statistical Matchup

CATEGORY	CHRISTIAN RODRIQUEZ	MELQUIZAEL COSTA
AGE	27	28
HEIGHT	5’7″	5’10”
REACH	71.5″	71.0″
RECORD	12-2-0	22-7-0
FIGHTING FROM	Milwaukee, Wisconsin	Bauru, São Paulo, Brazil

Final Prediction

Melquizael Costa has over a decade of experience and 29 fights. This gives him an edge in high-pressure situations. He knows how to adapt and use different strategies during a fight. This could help him against Rodriguez. However, Costa has less UFC experience than Rodriguez.

Costa recently submitted Shayilan Nuerdanbieke, showing he can finish tough opponents. He also has better striking accuracy, landing 46% of his significant strikes, while Rodriguez lands 37%. This gives Costa an advantage in stand-up exchanges.

Their featherweight fight at UFC Fight Night is a clash of experience vs. rising talent. Rodriguez’s UFC background makes him dangerous, but Costa’s hunger and improving skills make this a close fight.

MELQUIZAEL COSTA TO WIN BY POINTS

MELQUIZAEL COSTA TO WIN

OVER 2.5 ROUNDS