UFC: Robert Whittaker vs Reinier de Ridder Preview, Analysis and Prediction
A decisive middleweight showdown between Robert Whittaker and Reinier de Ridder is booked for UFC on ABC 9, set for July 26, 2025, at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, UAE. This bout presents a contrast of experience and styles: Whittaker returning to regain relevance after a tough loss, and de Ridder riding an undefeated UFC streak driven by dominant submissions.
Robert Whittaker: Veteran Striker With Legacy on the Line
Robert Whittaker (27–8 overall, ~17–6 UFC) is a former UFC Middleweight Champion and the first Australian titleholder at 185 pounds. At age 34, Whittaker still possesses top-tier volume striking (approximately 4.54 significant strikes per minute at 43% accuracy), strong takedown defense (around 81%), and veteran fight IQ—though his inconsistency against elite opponents is a concern after his submission loss to Khamzat Chimaev in October 2024.
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Reinier de Ridder: Grappling Giant Storming the UFC
Reinier de Ridder (20–2 professional, undefeated 3–0 in UFC) is a former two-division ONE Championship titleholder who has translated his BJJ dominance into quick Octagon finishes. He stands 6′4″ with a 78″ reach, and at 34 years old, maintains elite grappling stats—averaging 4.74 takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.4 submission attempts per 15 minutes, while absorbing just 2.21 strikes per minute with 60% striking accuracy.
| Attribute | Robert Whittaker | Reinier de Ridder |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 34 | 34 |
| Height / Reach | 6′0″ / 73.5″ | 6′4″ / 78″ |
| Record | 27–8 (17–6 UFC) | 20–2 (3–0 UFC) |
| Strikes Landed/Min | ~4.54 @ 43% accuracy | ~3.25 @ 60% accuracy |
| Strikes Absorbed/Min | ~3.41 @ 59% defense | ~2.21 @ 44% defense |
| Takedowns/15m | ~0.80 @ 38% accuracy | ~4.74, 1.4 subs/15m |
UFC Expert Picks & Betting Odds
- Odds: Whittaker holds a moderate favorite line (around –150 to –162), while de Ridder sits around +130 to +136 moneyline.
- Analysts:
- Anthony Smith picks Whittaker by decision: “I think he’s just a better martial artist… I’m unsure whether de Ridder can take him down and hold him.”
- Din Thomas backs de Ridder due to pressure and length wearing on Whittaker.
- Other UFC fighters like Marcus McGhee, Austen Lane, and Eryk Anders generally lean toward Whittaker for range and striking defense—but also respect de Ridder’s submission upside.
Prediction
Whittaker’s speed, striking seasoning, and takedown defense should limit de Ridder’s opportunities on the ground. Unless de Ridder can secure early pressure and takedowns, Whittaker’s consistency should win rounds comfortably. But if de Ridder scores early grappling control, there’s legitimate upset potential.
Robert Whittaker by unanimous decision (Rounds 2–5)
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